Transscript der Präsentation:

1. Mobile Internet – better than fixed? Professor Michael Walker OBE FREng Vodafone Executive Technical Advisor Cambridge Wireless Mobile Broadband SIG – “Mobile Broadband: Explosion or Implosion?” Cambridge, 10/06/10 1
2. Content • Wireless broadband drivers Users’ needs • Access technologies • Spectrum and Auctions Customer propositions • IP and WWW Terminal Service Enabling • Making the Internet mobile • Data explosion Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 2
3. Wireless broadband drivers Users’ needs Customer propositions Terminal Service Enabling Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 3
4. The application for broadband is the web And the Web is defining new ways of communicating through social networks PersianBlog.Com Cambridge, 10/06/10 4
5. Fixed & mobile data rate evolution FTTH 100Mbps 100 Mbps WiMAX/LTE 10-100 Mbps ADSL2 25Mbps 10 Mbps HSPA+ 5-30Mbps HSPA 2-4Mbps ADSL 3Mbps 1 Mbps ADSL 1Mbps HSDPA 1Mbps 3G R9 384k 128k 100 kbps 56k GPRS 38 kbps 28.8k 10 kbps GSM 9.6 kbps 9.6k Fixed Data VF Paknet 8 kbps Mobile Data 2.4k 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Cambridge, 10/06/10 5
6. The onward march of smartphones and tablets … the physical embodiment of Moore’s Law Mobile Internet 2010 Increasing dependency on wireless 2007 broadband for 2000 a compelling Full WWW capabilities user Integration of driving Web 2.0 multimedia innovation on the experience functionality & mobile platform services
7. Access technologies Users’ needs Customer propositions Terminal Service Enabling Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 7
8. Mobile broadband access evolution HSPA/HSPA+ HSPA WiMAX/LTE WiMAX 2.0/LTE-Advanced • HSPA @ 3.6/7.2/14.4 • Spectral efficiency and flexibility • Flat-rate price-plans • Latency & peak rate • ITU IMT-Advanced • Built-in • Flat architecture •Multiuser MIMO/Relays devices/dongles • Commercial deployments of WiMAX • HSPA+ @ 21.6/28.8 • LTE announced by Verizon Wireless •Smart phones and others Cambridge, 10/06/10 8
9. HSPA to LTE/WiMAX 144Mbps Average throughput of cell when loaded Peak rates in perfect conditions Step Change Industry simulations of LTE 72Mbps Step Change 32Mbps 21.8Mbps 16Mbps 6Mbps 4.7Mbps 3Mbps HSPA 7.2 HSPA+ (5MHz) LTE 2*10MHz LTE 2*20MHz Cambridge, 10/06/10 9
10. Peak rates can be very misleading Downlink Peak rate coverage – lightly loaded Downlink Peak rate coverage – fully loaded 14.4 Mbps 7.2 Mbps 3.6 Mbps 1.8 Mbps 250 kbps 500m 500m Cambridge, 10/06/10 10
11. Projected user experience WiMAX Wave 2 LTE LTE Release 8 Release 8 HSPA HSPA+ (potential) (potential) 3.6/7.2/14.4 21.8 Measured With correction Spectrum 2×5 2×5 1×30 1×30 2×10 2×20 (MHz) Channel 5 MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz size Typical user rate 1 Mbps 1.5 Mbps 1.7 Mbps 4 Mbps 5 Mbps 10 Mbps Cambridge, 10/06/10 11
12. LTE – a global solution LTE Strategy + + performance Global scale Cost / IPR trial Underpinned by a sound spectrum strategy Must support FDD and TDD Must be a global standard Cambridge, 10/06/10 12
13. Spectrum needs Users’ needs Customer propositions Terminal Service Enabling Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 13
14. What Spectrum – 3G extension bands @ 2.6 GHz and digital dividend UHF @ 800Mhz 3G extension band UHF Cambridge, 10/06/10 14
15. Auctions and commercial deployments • Verizon Wireless: has spectrum at 700 MHz, has selected LTE FDD in 10 MHz carrier, has announced commercial launch in 4Q –2010 • Clearwire/Sprint have 60-100 MHz of spectrum in various markets in the US and have deployed Mobile WiMAX • China Mobile: believed to want at least 10 MHz carrier at 2.3 MHz, prefers TD LTE as it is an evolution of TD-SCDMA – anticipate/guess 2011 • Germany: – Government has licensed 2.6 GHz, and UHF at 800 MHz as part of digital dividend • Netherlands: – Auction for 2.6 GHz in April, combinatorial 37 lots of 5 MHz, 10 in centre reserved for TDD • UHF “digital dividend” and 2.6 GHz 3G extension band spectrum to be auctioned in European countries over next few years Cambridge, 10/06/10 15
16. The world of IP – and the perils of horizontalisation Users’ needs Customer propositions Terminal Service Enabling Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 16
17. Evolving the connectivity layer using IP Yesterday Tomorrow Vertical services Multi-service platforms Services Services Content Content Services Environment Telephony Data Net Mobile WLAN Fixed Fixed IP Multi-Services network Access Access Access Transport, Switching & Access Networks Cambridge, 10/06/10 17
18. Making the Internet mobile Users’ needs Customer propositions Terminal Service Enabling Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 18
19. Mobile Internet hasn’t been a success story – to date May look the same…user insight has told us that this • Display size & resolution is important… • Navigation within a page …but overall experience is • Text input not the same due to User Interface constraints Small client-side apps that Rather than simply provide simple Web mobilising the Web… functionality to the user in a …take a different bubblegum presentation format approach Information available at a glance Cambridge, 10/06/10 19
20. Mobile is taking a different approach – apps • Provide packaged access to the Web On a mobile device, search is not where it’s at, not like • Improve responsiveness enabling a on the desktop. They’re spending all their time on these ‘zero-latency’ Web experience apps — they’re using apps to get to data on the internet, not generalized search Steve Jobs, April 2010 • Provide information at a glance through push notifications • Enable offline access Cambridge, 10/06/10 20
21. Accessing device capabilities #1 #2 Web Web Enhanced browser apps Web apps Web Device Runtime APIs Specifications and standards emerging Web page Simple Widget Contextualised Widget Operator Wholesale driven JIL Applications ecosystems Community for widgets/ apps emerging Cambridge, 10/06/10 21
22. Network APIs to the mixture Enabling access to device and network enablers from web apps Device Network 1) Web Web Web Apps Apps Services Web Runtime Operator Network APIs Windows Mobile Telecom Italia Palm WebOS Blackberry Telefonica iPohne OS Vodafone Linux (n) Symbian Telenor Android T-Mobile BREW Three AT&T … 1) Web apps: downloaded to device, web services: hosted on Internet, consumed via browser Cambridge, 10/06/10 22
23. Data explosion Users’ needs Customer propositions Terminal Service Enabling Connectivity Access Spectrum and regulation Cambridge, 10/06/10 23
24. Mobile Internet outpaces desktop Cambridge, 10/06/10 24
25. iPhone & Android leading the way Smartphone segment will account for 50% US sales next year and similar trends in Europe Cambridge, 10/06/10 25
26. The cost/revenue challenge Traffic Diverging expectations for traffic and revenue growth Costs Revenue Voice Data Time Cambridge, 10/06/10 26